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Nuclear Power: Key to Zero Carbon?
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- May 21, 2025
Nuclear power stands out in the energy sector, boasting the lowest carbon emissions per kilowatt hour compared to other energy sources, as well as high energy densityThis makes it a reliable baseload power source, and an increasing number of countries are starting to acknowledge its importance.
In the context of a global transition towards cleaner energy sources, more countries are prioritizing nuclear power.
As a clean and low-carbon energy source that is both stable and efficient, nuclear power not only helps reduce greenhouse gas emissions and aids countries in meeting their climate change goals, but it also reduces reliance on imported fossil fuels, enhancing energy supply securityWith growing electricity demands driven by rapid electrification and emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, nuclear power is increasingly seen as a crucial contributor to future energy strategies.
In December 2023, during the 28th UN Climate Change Conference (COP 28), 25 countries, including the US, UK, France, and Canada, signed the "Global Zero Nuclear Declaration," pledging to double global nuclear power capacity by 2050 to reach three times the currently installed capacityAdvertisements
By December 2024, at the 29th UN Climate Change Conference (COP 29), an additional six countries including Turkey and Kazakhstan joined the declaration, bringing the total number of signatories to 31. This article will analyze the global nuclear power landscape, the current status and outlook for China's nuclear sector, and provide recommendations for its future development.
Global Developments in Nuclear Power
As of the end of 2024, there are 417 operational nuclear reactors worldwide, with a total installed capacity of 377 gigawattsNuclear power generation for the year is estimated at approximately 2.7 trillion kilowatt-hours, accounting for around 9% of the global electricity generation, making it the second-largest clean energy source after hydropower.
In 2023, the share of nuclear power generation reached 65%, 63%, and 50% in some countries respectivelyIn the United States, Russia, and the UK, nuclear power constitutes significant portions of their energy mix, accounting for 18%, 18%, and 14% respectively, all exceeding the global averageConversely, nuclear power remains a smaller part of energy structures in countries like China and India, comprising less than 5%.
Globally, the development of nuclear energy primarily utilizes pressurized water reactors and boiling water reactors
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Among the 417 nuclear reactors in operation, 308 units are pressurized water reactors, making up 73.7% of the total, while 43 units are boiling water reactors, accounting for 10.3%.
Nuclear power offers numerous advantages over traditional fossil fuels and renewable energy sources in terms of energy supply stability, environmental impact, and technological maturity.
Firstly, nuclear power is a clean, low-carbon energy source with the lowest carbon emissions per kilowatt-hour among all energy genresAccording to the ecological department's report on the carbon footprint factor for major power generation types in 2023, nuclear energy's carbon dioxide emissions stand at only 6.5 grams per kilowatt-hour, which is two orders of magnitude lower than fossil fuels and one order of magnitude lower than renewable energy sources (with photovoltaic, wind, and hydropower having emissions of 54.5 grams, 33.6 grams, and 14.3 grams respectively).
Comparative data also highlights nuclear energy’s low-carbon statusFor instance, France, predominantly fueled by nuclear energy, recorded a per capita carbon emission of 4.1 tons in 2022, while Germany, leaning towards renewable energies, had a per capita carbon emission of 7.3 tons — almost double that of France.
Secondly, nuclear fuel has a high energy density, with one ton of uranium capable of producing around 44 million kilowatt-hours of electricity
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In comparison, achieving the same output would require over 20,000 tons of coal or 8.5 million cubic meters of natural gasThis high energy density not only augments the efficiency of land use for nuclear power plants but also supports robust power production.
For example, a 1 million kilowatt wind farm requires nearly 600 square kilometers, whereas the Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant, with an installed capacity close to 2 million kilowatts, occupies only 2 square kilometers.
Furthermore, nuclear power plants are stable baseload power sources with high utilization rates and lower cost per kilowatt hourAccording to the China Electricity Council's reported data for power generation equipment of 6000 kilowatts and above, the utilization hours for China’s nuclear power in 2024 are projected at 7683 hours, which is approximately 6.3 times that of grid-connected solar and 3.6 times that of wind energyNuclear power generation is also less affected by weather and seasonal changes due to its high energy density and long fuel replacement cycle.
These advantages of nuclear power are gaining recognition from an increasing number of countries.
The United States, for instance, plans to add 35 million kilowatts of nuclear power by 2035, aiming for a total installed capacity increase of 200 million kilowatts by 2050 to meet its goal for tripling nuclear energy generation
Furthermore, the Inflation Reduction Act passed in 2022 provides production tax credits (PTC) of 0.3 cents per kilowatt-hour for nuclear that increase to 1.5 cents per kilowatt-hour if the nuclear plants meet wage and worker training criteria.
Japan is actively working towards restarting its nuclear power operations, with ambitions to increase nuclear's share in its energy mix from 9% in 2023 to 20% by 2030. Of the 54 commercial nuclear reactors shut down following the Fukushima disaster in 2011, 14 have already been restarted, and 11 more are anticipated to gain approval for restart soon.
The UK aims to increase its nuclear capacity to 24 million kilowatts by 2050, representing 25% of its total electricity generationMeanwhile, Russia envisions raising the share of nuclear power generation from 18.9% in 2023 to 24% by 2042. To phase out coal power, Poland plans its first nuclear plant operational by 2033 and aims for 6 million to 9 million kilowatts of nuclear capacity by 2043.
In 2023, global investment in nuclear energy amounted to $65 billion, which is approximately double that of a decade ago, of which $42 billion was dedicated to constructing new nuclear plantsBy the end of 2024, there are 63 nuclear reactors under construction worldwide, with an installed capacity of around 71 million kilowattsCountries such as China, India, Turkey, Egypt, and Russia lead in the number of reactors under construction.
The Current Status and Prospects of China's Nuclear Development
In recent years, with the advancement of the "dual carbon" agenda and progress in nuclear technologies, China is actively pursuing safe and orderly development of its nuclear sector.
In the first four years of the 14th Five-Year Plan, China has approved 36 nuclear power unitsSince 2022, the country has approved more than ten nuclear power units continuously for three yearsChina has maintained a steady construction pace, developing comprehensive nuclear utilization demonstration projects to promote the use of nuclear energy in clean heating, industrial heating, and seawater desalinationIt is expected that by 2025, China's operational nuclear capacity will reach 68 million kilowatts.
By the end of 2024, China will have a total of 58 connected nuclear reactors, with an installed capacity of 60.88 million kilowattsThis number places China second globally in the number of reactors, next to the United States with 94, and third in total installed capacity, following the United States at 96.95 million kilowatts and France at 63.02 million kilowatts.
In 2024, China's total nuclear power generation is projected to reach 445.2 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 2.72% year-on-year, accounting for approximately 4.73% of the nation’s total power generation
By the end of 2024, there will be 27 nuclear reactors under construction in China, all of which are pressurized water reactors, with a total installed capacity of 32.31 million kilowatts, ranking first globallyIn total, including operational, under construction, and approved reactors, China has 102 nuclear units, with a combined capacity of 113 million kilowatts, maintaining the top position in the world for the second consecutive year.
The provinces along China’s eastern coast, such as Guangdong, Fujian, and Zhejiang, are major players in the nuclear power landscape.
Guangdong Province currently has the highest operational and under-construction nuclear capacity in the nation, with an installed capacity of 16.14 million kilowatts and 7.16 million kilowatts respectivelyThe province aims to leverage industrial clustering effects to boost the nuclear technology application industry chain by reaching a nuclear capacity of 18.54 million kilowatts by 2025.
Fujian Province emphasizes safe and efficient nuclear power development as a major strategy to promote clean energyThe province actively engages in the research and demonstration of cutting-edge nuclear technologies such as fast neutron reactors and high-temperature gas-cooled reactors.
Zhejiang Province plans to solidify nuclear power's strategic position as a long-term primary energy source in the province, applying advanced, mature technological routes
The province plans to arrange projects annually to exceed 10 million kilowatts of operational nuclear capacity by 2025.
Jiangsu Province is advancing nuclear power project construction, targeting a thousand-kilowatt nuclear base while prioritizing safety throughout the development process.
Shandong Province first achieved cross-city nuclear heating, with the State Power Investment Corporation's "Warm Nuclear 1" phase three nuclear heating project officially beginning operations in 2023, providing heating for Yantai and extending into Weihai, effectively creating a zero-carbon heating source across regions and initiating a "dual city" heating model using nuclear energy.
The China Nuclear Energy Association has also called for optimizing nuclear power layout and initiating inland nuclear projects to address notable electricity supply shortages in central provincesCentral regions, being at the end of energy supply chains, have largely exhausted hydropower potential and are saturated with operating coal power units, making nuclear power a viable choice for sustainable energy supply and replacing coal-fired power.
Following the impact of the 2011 Fukushima disaster, several suspended inland nuclear projects in Hunan, Hubei, and Jiangxi have completed the necessary approvals and preparations, with more than 12 billion yuan invested and favorable conditions set for developing internal nuclear stations.
Many domestic and international institutions maintain an optimistic outlook on China's nuclear power development prospects.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), under a commitment scenario, China's nuclear power capacity is expected to reach about 120 million kilowatts by 2030 and approximately 280 million kilowatts by 2050. Under a net zero emissions scenario, nuclear power capacity could rise to about 150 million kilowatts by 2030 and 330 million kilowatts by 2050.
The China Nuclear Energy Association projects that by 2030, China's operational nuclear capacity will likely exceed that of the United States, asserting a more pivotal role in the global nuclear power landscapeBy 2035, nuclear energy is anticipated to account for 10% of the total power generation, doubling from current levelsMoreover, North China Electric Power University forecasts that nuclear power capacity may reach between 100 million to 120 million kilowatts by 2030 and between 300 million to 350 million kilowatts by 2060.
Recommendations for the Future Development of Nuclear Power in China
China should actively and safely develop nuclear power as a key pillar for achieving its dual carbon goalsComprehensive planning for the layout of nuclear power plants should be prioritized, focusing on economically developed coastal areas with high electricity demand, while also promoting pilot nuclear projects in appropriate inland regions, progressively expanding nuclear power accessibility.
Nuclear power development must prioritize safety, adhering to the principle of "safety first." Strict safety standards should be enforced throughout the entire life cycle of nuclear plants, from site selection and design to construction and operation, incorporating advanced international practices to foster a robust nuclear safety culture.
The government should increase funding for nuclear technology research and development by establishing dedicated scientific research funds, encouraging research institutions and companies to tackle critical technological challenges that ensure China's competitive edge in the global nuclear technology arena
Establishing a collaborative innovation system supported by enterprises, universities, and research institutions will expedite the transformation and application of nuclear technology innovations.
In addition, China should engage with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and relevant countries and institutions, actively participating in the formulation of nuclear energy technology standards and project construction to expand exports of its nuclear technology and equipment, thereby enhancing its international influence.
Through educational outreach initiatives such as public open days, societal understanding and acceptance of nuclear power can be enhancedDuring the planning stages of nuclear projects, public feedback should be proactively solicited to improve transparency and engagement, creating a supportive social atmosphere.
Efforts should also be geared towards complementing nuclear power with renewable energies such as photovoltaics and wind energy to jointly establish a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient modern energy system.
Strengthening the research and application of fourth-generation nuclear reactor technologies is also crucial
These include gas-cooled fast reactors, lead-cooled fast reactors, sodium-cooled fast reactors, molten salt reactors, supercritical water reactors, and (super) high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, all of which exhibit superior safety, economic, and sustainability advantages compared to previous reactor generations.
First, fourth-generation nuclear reactors possess inherent safety featuresThey utilize natural convection, gravity, and thermal conductivity for cooling, rather than relying on complex external cooling systems.
For instance, China's high-temperature gas-cooled reactor, the world’s first of its kind, utilizes heat-resistant coated particle fuel and a high thermal capacity graphite moderator, allowing it to maintain core integrity and effectively dissipate heat even in emergency conditions.
Moreover, molten salt reactors feature an emergency salt drainage system, which directs fuel and cooling salt into an emergency reservoir when the reactor core exceeds preset temperatures, halting the nuclear reaction.
Second, fourth-generation reactors, represented by fast reactors and molten salt reactors, are capable of fuel breeding and transmutation, which significantly enhances nuclear fuel utilization efficiency, reduces the radioactivity hazard of nuclear waste, and supports the sustainable development of nuclear energy.
Fuel breeding involves transforming specific materials through neutron reactions (such as uranium-238 or thorium-232) into new fissionable nuclear fuels (like plutonium-239 or uranium-233), resulting in a net gain of fission fuel
This process can increase uranium resource utilization by more than 60 times.
Transmutation can change long-lived, highly radioactive nuclear waste (such as actinides) into elements with shorter half-lives or lower radioactivity, thereby reducing both the volume and toxicity of nuclear waste, significantly shortening its environmental impact timeframe by 300 times while reducing waste quantities by one to two orders of magnitude.
Additionally, fourth-generation reactors operate at much higher outlet temperatures, enabling broader industrial applicationsCurrent large pressurized water reactors typically have outlet temperatures around 300°C, insufficient for meeting higher temperature thermal demandsIn contrast, fourth-generation reactors are capable of reaching outlet temperatures between 500°C to 1000°C, offering promising applications in sectors such as steel, chemicals, cement, and hydrogen production.
Fourth-generation reactors also facilitate small-scale and modular designs, suitable for distributed energy applicationsFor example, sodium-cooled fast reactors can range from 50 megawatts to 150 megawatts, while high-temperature gas-cooled reactors can be 250 to 300 megawatts, with lead-cooled fast reactors as low as 20 megawatts.
The introduction of small modular reactors (SMR) could revolutionize the flexible deployment of nuclear power and its application across diverse scenarios
SMRs boast lower initial investment costs, shorter construction timelines, and greater flexibilityTypically, SMR units have outputs ranging from 10 megawatts to 350 megawatts, which can be combined as neededThe modular design allows for standardization at the factory level before assembly on-site, reducing construction time and costs while minimizing investment risks.
Due to a smaller reactor core and lower thermal inertia, SMRs demonstrate strong power modulation capabilities, enabling quick adjustments to output based on grid demandsTheir small size and decentralized deployment advantages make them more suitable for complementary operations with distributed renewable energy systems, ensuring regional electricity supply stability.
SMRs have a lower site selection criterion, allowing for broad application scenariosThey can provide stable electricity and heat for residential and industrial enterprises in urban and industrial park settings, solve energy supply issues in remote areas and islands, and facilitate the transformation of existing coal power infrastructure into nuclear facilities through gradual deployment of SMRs for phasing out outdated coal plants.
Additionally, SMRs are increasingly viewed as a potential power solution for data centers
Currently, plans are in place to construct up to 25 million kilowatts of SMRs for the data center industry, predominantly located in the United StatesThe IEA forecasts that by 2050, a total of 120 million kilowatts of SMR capacity will be constructed globally, with China leading at 35 million kilowatts.
It's essential to continually elevate the comprehensive utility of nuclear energyIn hydrogen production, high-temperature reactors can produce clean hydrogen via sulfur-iodine thermochemical cyclesThis method is a promising hydrogen production technology aiming for large-scale, low-cost, and highly efficient hydrogen productionUnlike traditional water electrolysis, the sulfur-iodine cycle extracts hydrogen through direct chemical reactions, thus avoiding additional energy losses associated with power conversion, providing higher energy utilization efficiencyHowever, this process typically requires high-temperature conditions ranging from 800°C to 1000°C, which current third-generation reactors cannot achieve, whereas designs within fourth-generation reactors such as ultra-high temperature gas reactors or molten salt reactors can.
In industrial applications, fourth-generation reactors can meet the high-temperature thermal loads of industrial users, replacing coal and natural gas boilers for achieving decarbonization in the industrial sectorReactor types maintaining outlet temperatures above 700°C could directly serve high-temperature chemical processes like ammonia and methanol synthesis
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